1 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:28,439 Pounding rain, 2 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:32,119 ferocious winds and surging waves. 3 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:37,119 Tropical storms are a deadly disaster that affect millions, 4 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:42,399 causing damage, death and destruction in their wake. 5 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:44,519 They just destroy everything in their path. 6 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:46,279 These things are... Are deadly. 7 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:48,559 They're-- In some cases they're unsurvivable. 8 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:53,559 Then the winds drop and calm descends. 9 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:55,040 Is it over? 10 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:01,079 The eye of the storm is a small oasis of calm 11 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:04,119 in the center of a tropical cyclone storm. 12 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:08,399 Found at the center, the eye is surrounded 13 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:12,839 by storm clouds, rain and wind. 14 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:17,319 Cyclones continuously move across the Earth's surface. 15 00:01:17,320 --> 00:01:20,159 Any safety afforded by the eye of the storm 16 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:22,640 is only a temporary respite. 17 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:27,319 As the cyclone continues to track forward, 18 00:01:27,320 --> 00:01:29,399 the eye moves on. 19 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,519 The safe zone shifts as the winds close in again 20 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:34,839 for a second dose. 21 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:37,679 Cyclones are among the most destructive 22 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:40,119 of natural disasters, 23 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:42,199 impacting millions of people 24 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:45,399 and causing billions of dollars of damage. 25 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:48,599 In this episode of Deadly Disasters, 26 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,159 we will discover how cyclones form 27 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:53,679 and why they are so deadly. 28 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,039 Experts will provide testimony 29 00:01:56,040 --> 00:02:00,759 on the most catastrophic disasters of recent years. 30 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:04,959 We will look at storm case studies from around the globe. 31 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:07,599 In 2017, Cyclone Debbie 32 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:10,839 left no part of Australia unaffected. 33 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:13,479 We will see the reasons why it went on to become 34 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:18,039 one of the costliest cyclones in Australian history. 35 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:21,439 Most of my stuff got still left there. 36 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:23,679 And it'll all be gone. 37 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:27,479 The aftermath of cyclones can be just as deadly, 38 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,239 with whole populations of people affected 39 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:34,239 by the lack of food and medical supplies. 40 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,359 We will look at how the rescue efforts in Myanmar 41 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:40,599 were thwarted by its despotic rulers, 42 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:44,799 ensuring the outcome of Cyclone Nargis in 2008 43 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,559 was many times worse. 44 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:50,639 What can be expected when the unthinkable happens 45 00:02:50,640 --> 00:02:55,239 and two major cyclones hit in a single season? 46 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:58,359 Southern Africa in 2019 47 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:01,159 faced up to this nightmare circumstance, 48 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,599 forced to deal with both Idai and Kenneth. 49 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:07,399 No food, no food, no food. 50 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:09,319 We will consider what happens 51 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:12,159 when a country struggling to deal with one disaster 52 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:14,439 gets hit with another. 53 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:19,839 We will look at how people adapt and respond to cyclones. 54 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:23,399 Our experts will also look at how our changing climate 55 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:28,080 has influenced the impact and outcome of these storms. 56 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:44,039 Cyclones, typhoons and hurricanes 57 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,159 are basically the same type of storm. 58 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:48,919 The different titles indicate 59 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:52,159 the storm's geographical location: 60 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:56,239 cyclones in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, 61 00:03:56,240 --> 00:04:00,279 hurricanes in the Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific 62 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:03,759 and typhoons in the western North Pacific. 63 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:05,959 Regardless of the title, 64 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:08,919 these tropical storms are a serious challenge 65 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:12,320 for anyone unlucky enough to be in their path. 66 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:18,999 Cyclones need very specific weather conditions to form. 67 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:23,519 A tropical cyclone is a large swirling storm 68 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:28,039 which is found usually between five degrees latitude 69 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:29,479 in either hemisphere 70 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:33,679 and approximately 20 to 30 degrees latitude. 71 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:36,999 A tropical cyclone is a low pressure storm 72 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:41,279 that forms over tropical or subtropical waters. 73 00:04:41,280 --> 00:04:44,399 The storm winds circulate in a spiral, 74 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:46,999 clockwise in the Earth's southern hemisphere 75 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:50,359 and counterclockwise in the north. 76 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:52,879 The forces that are needed for them to form 77 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:55,639 means that they will only occur in areas in the tropics 78 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:57,199 away from the equator, 79 00:04:57,200 --> 00:05:00,199 where there is a rotational effect in the winds. 80 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:03,239 They will only form where the ocean is warm. 81 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:06,239 And they will form where there is humidity in the atmosphere. 82 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:08,999 So where those conditions are right, 83 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:11,479 then a storm can be formed. 84 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:14,079 And it can grow and grow under its own power 85 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:16,719 and produce a devastating tropical cyclone. 86 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:19,679 Cyclones cover large areas, 87 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:22,239 enough to affect many millions of people 88 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:25,599 when they hit populated areas. 89 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:30,359 A cyclonic system is typically eight or 10 kilometers high 90 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:35,199 and around 480 to 640 kilometers across, 91 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:39,439 approximately the distance between London and Dublin. 92 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:43,319 Hurricanes and cyclones require several conditions to be right 93 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:45,240 in order for them to form. 94 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:48,879 Cyclones start in the tropics 95 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:53,639 over the warm ocean because heat and moisture are needed. 96 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:56,359 This sets up a flow of warm, moist air 97 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:58,639 that rises very quickly. 98 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:02,199 The rising air creates an area of low pressure at the surface 99 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:04,959 called a depression. 100 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:09,199 These tropical depressions only become tropical cyclones 101 00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:11,559 when certain circumstances occur. 102 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:15,079 For instance, sea surface temperatures need to be 103 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:17,319 at least 27 degrees Celsius 104 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:21,599 to inject enough energy into the process. 105 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:24,479 Surface winds need to converge in the same area 106 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:26,639 from different directions. 107 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:28,999 This pushes the damp air upward, 108 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:32,639 allowing storm clouds to form. 109 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:36,359 The storm clouds need to rise vertically unimpeded 110 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:38,119 without being blown off course, 111 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:41,359 so wind shear needs to be minimal. 112 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:44,439 The twisting motion of the cyclones is generated 113 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:46,439 by the rotation of the Earth. 114 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:47,919 The depression needs to be 115 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:49,759 a specific distance from the equator 116 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:54,079 to provide a sufficient Coriolis force. 117 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:58,599 When all the weather conditions fall into this Goldilocks zone, 118 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:03,439 the winds accelerate into the spiral of a full-blown cyclone. 119 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:10,719 Its early genesis, it might be no more 120 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:12,239 than a severe thunderstorm, 121 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:13,639 or, as we would see it, 122 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,959 sort of a very cloudy, thundery, rainy area. 123 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:19,119 But if it gets those three conditions right, 124 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:20,399 it will intensify. 125 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:22,079 So when we are forecasting storms, 126 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:24,959 we can see them change their characteristics very quickly. 127 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:26,919 If they are traveling along a trajectory 128 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:30,559 which suddenly brings them into very, very warm ocean 129 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:32,599 or very moist atmospheres, 130 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:35,279 or suddenly the winds that might shear the storm 131 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:36,879 become very calm, 132 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:39,959 a tropical cyclone can intensify incredibly quickly. 133 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:41,719 In a matter of 24 hours, 134 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:44,479 it can change from a Category 1 to a Category 5. 135 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:47,039 Easily recognized from space, 136 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:50,199 cyclones form a cylinder of dense thundercloud 137 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:52,520 around a calm central eye. 138 00:07:54,760 --> 00:08:00,079 The average eye of a cyclone is about 48 kilometers across. 139 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:02,719 The area is relatively calm, 140 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:05,920 a space where winds and rain abate. 141 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:09,639 The most extreme winds are found 142 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:11,719 on the edge of this area. 143 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:13,759 The eyewall is typically 144 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:16,160 the most destructive part of a cyclone. 145 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:19,599 Cyclones can be deadly 146 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:23,199 because they cause severe flooding. 147 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:27,759 And this flooding is over a fairly large area 148 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:29,519 and can be extreme, 149 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:33,839 in terms of 5, 6 meters of flooding in some cases, 150 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:37,119 and that catches people unprepared. 151 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:38,999 People underestimate cyclones 152 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:42,439 when they have not experienced a strong cyclone 153 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:46,919 in their region in the last, say, 20 years. 154 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:49,479 So when there is not the memory 155 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:51,559 of a strong cyclone in that region, 156 00:08:51,560 --> 00:08:53,439 people tend to underestimate 157 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:55,519 how bad a cyclone is going to be. 158 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:57,759 Cyclones bring devastation 159 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:01,519 in the form of high winds, torrential rain 160 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:03,800 and coastal storm surges. 161 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,079 Australia, as a continent, 162 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:21,519 is close to the warm tropical waters of the South Pacific. 163 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:25,479 It's no stranger to the havoc that cyclones can unleash. 164 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:28,159 For a country that's used to extreme weather, 165 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:32,040 2017 was an exceptional year. 166 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:38,079 Tropical Cyclone Debbie was one of the worst storms 167 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:40,920 to hit Australia since records began. 168 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:44,959 Cyclones are given human's names 169 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,319 to allow for easy identification 170 00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:49,080 of specific storms. 171 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:54,519 The practice stems from the 1950s. 172 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:57,599 Alternating male and female names are chosen 173 00:09:57,600 --> 00:09:59,799 in alphabetic order. 174 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:04,079 On March the 23rd, off the coast of Queensland, 175 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:07,120 a tropical low pressure zone was detected. 176 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:11,839 Fed by high surface temperatures in the ocean, 177 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:13,919 it developed over the next three days 178 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:16,600 into a Category 4 cyclone. 179 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:21,839 Categories are an important indicator 180 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:24,200 of how dangerous a cyclone can be. 181 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:28,759 Cyclones are given a different numbered category 182 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:31,399 depending on their wind speeds. 183 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:33,559 Category 1 have sustained winds 184 00:10:33,560 --> 00:10:37,079 above 119 kilometers per hour. 185 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,559 Category 2, 186 00:10:39,560 --> 00:10:42,160 above 154 kilometers per hour. 187 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:47,880 Three, above 178 kilometers per hour. 188 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:52,720 Four, above 209. 189 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:57,079 And Category 5 have speeds 190 00:10:57,080 --> 00:11:00,480 above 251 kilometers per hour. 191 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:04,919 The higher the category rating, 192 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:08,799 the more dangerous the cyclone potentially is. 193 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:15,399 Category 4 and 5 storms need to be taken very seriously indeed. 194 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:19,239 The strongest recorded winds from a tropical cyclone 195 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:22,679 are around 200 miles an hour, 196 00:11:22,680 --> 00:11:25,359 sustained for about a minute. 197 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:29,359 And that is approaching the kind of winds and devastation 198 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:31,479 you would get from a tornado. 199 00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:34,959 From March the 26th, 2017, 200 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:38,599 meteorologists tracked the westward progress of the storm 201 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:40,200 across the Pacific. 202 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:43,719 First landfall occurred 203 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:46,119 when Debbie hit the Whitsunday Islands 204 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:49,159 on March the 28th. 205 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:53,479 The Whitsunday Islands are normally a tropical paradise, 206 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,519 famous for their proximity to the Great Barrier Reef 207 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:59,040 and a popular tourist destination. 208 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:02,679 When Debbie hit the islands, 209 00:12:02,680 --> 00:12:04,719 it was at Category 4 strength 210 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:08,480 with winds over 209 kilometers per hour. 211 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:12,199 The full force of the cyclone 212 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:14,679 was perfectly targeted on the islands, 213 00:12:14,680 --> 00:12:18,320 with the eye of the storm passing directly overhead. 214 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:24,079 We were either just inside the red zone 215 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:25,999 or just outside it in the orange zone. 216 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:29,279 And that's like 170, 180 kilometer-an-hour winds. 217 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:32,399 That's-- That's bad. Heh, heh, that really is. 218 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:34,879 After hitting the Whitsunday Islands, 219 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:37,519 the storm continued towards the mainland 220 00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:40,480 and made landfall at Airlie Beach, Queensland. 221 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:45,999 A peak storm surge of over two and a half meters 222 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:47,999 was recorded by Laguna Quays. 223 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:55,759 A storm surge is a rise in sea level 224 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:58,040 caused by a tropical cyclone. 225 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:03,119 Most deaths from tropical cyclones occur 226 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:06,439 from flooding due to storm surge. 227 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:08,439 And the second cause of death is flooding 228 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:11,799 due to freshwater rains and mudslides. 229 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,519 And the best way to prevent loss of life in storm surge 230 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:17,639 is evacuation and shelter. 231 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:22,039 And so people need time to be able to get to shelters 232 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:24,319 and there need to be shelters close enough 233 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:26,079 that people can get to them. 234 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:28,159 And the shelters need to be large enough 235 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:30,199 and adequate to survive the storm. 236 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:32,559 A storm surge occurs 237 00:13:32,560 --> 00:13:35,679 where the sea level rises above its normal level, 238 00:13:35,680 --> 00:13:38,320 often flooding low-lying areas. 239 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:43,519 Surges are caused by the low pressure, 240 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:47,160 high winds and high waves generated by the cyclone. 241 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:53,799 If a high tide coincides with the cyclone's landfall, 242 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:55,880 the waves can be even higher... 243 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:00,319 because the additional storm surge waters 244 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:03,519 flow on top of the high tide. 245 00:14:03,520 --> 00:14:06,559 In coastal areas, storm surges are often 246 00:14:06,560 --> 00:14:09,840 the greatest threat to life and property. 247 00:14:11,680 --> 00:14:17,439 A cubic meter of water weighs about 1000 kilograms, 248 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:21,039 and surges are able to exert significant forces 249 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:23,200 against anything in their path. 250 00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:28,199 Only the strongest buildings and flood defenses 251 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,840 can withstand the pounding of the water. 252 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:34,439 People caught in the initial surge 253 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:36,160 risk being washed away... 254 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:40,479 drowned, trapped in falling buildings, 255 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:42,920 or injured by moving debris. 256 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:48,319 Floods caused by storm surges 257 00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:52,160 have the added complication that the seawater is saline. 258 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:56,319 The salt water flows inland, 259 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:58,599 poisoning wells, farmland 260 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:01,040 and seeping into the groundwater. 261 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:06,039 The groundwater salinity can last years, 262 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:08,599 causing havoc with water supplies 263 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:13,999 until it's eventually diluted enough by fresh rainwater. 264 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:17,279 Floodwaters can also overrun sewers, 265 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:19,560 spreading infectious disease. 266 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:24,439 Evidence of fecal contamination, such as E. coli, 267 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:25,999 as well as we've got evidence 268 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,559 of Streptococcus and Legionella. 269 00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:30,999 These things, while they may be harmless 270 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:32,719 when floating around in floodwater, 271 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:35,359 if you were to get them into a wound or in your mouth 272 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:37,079 or on your food, could cause 273 00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:39,439 some quite severe gastrointestinal illnesses. 274 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:42,919 Dealing with the sheer numbers of affected people 275 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:45,599 is one of the main logistical challenges 276 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:47,920 associated with cyclones. 277 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:54,919 All women and children, follow the lady! 278 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:57,319 Large numbers of transient people 279 00:15:57,320 --> 00:15:59,159 can block transport routes 280 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:03,640 and then need quantities of food, medicine and shelter. 281 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:11,199 Flooding was expected in low-lying coastal areas. 282 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:15,279 Twenty-five thousand residents in the area of Airlie Beach, 283 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:19,599 Bowen and Proserpine were ordered to evacuate. 284 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:21,479 The same day, 285 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:25,319 Debbie made landfall in Queensland around 5 p.m. 286 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:30,400 with wind gusts of up to 262 kilometers per hour. 287 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,319 Boats were blown onto the shore. 288 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:39,479 Gusts ripped roofs off buildings, 289 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:40,719 leveled walls, 290 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:43,520 and mature trees were uprooted. 291 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:49,679 The storm behaved like a battering ram 292 00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:52,360 as it smashed through the town. 293 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:57,039 Heavy rainfall continued, 294 00:16:57,040 --> 00:16:58,760 triggering dramatic flooding. 295 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:05,519 One measuring station recorded 646 millimeters of rain 296 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:08,519 in a single 24 hours. 297 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:11,679 The water went up to the top of the windows, 298 00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:15,600 so everything I couldn't get up out of it would be gone. 299 00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:18,959 For the next two days, 300 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:21,399 Cyclone Debbie continued to push on 301 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:23,120 across the countryside... 302 00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:27,280 creating a disaster zone... 303 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:32,319 across a 1400 kilometer-wide stretch 304 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:35,079 of the Australian landscape. 305 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:39,519 Cyclone Debbie was a very large system that moved slowly. 306 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:42,279 It took a long time to pass. 307 00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:45,239 Areas underneath were directly in the storm for longer 308 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:49,799 than they would otherwise be in a typical cyclone. 309 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:52,559 Fortunately, there were no immediate deaths 310 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:54,159 in the strike zone, 311 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:56,559 although the eventual death toll 312 00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:58,440 was at least 10 people. 313 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:03,039 Days after the cyclone passed, 314 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:06,880 Airlie Beach was still without power and running water. 315 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:12,159 The continued bad weather frustrated aid efforts, 316 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:13,639 with roads blocked 317 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:16,880 and communications infrastructure damaged. 318 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:24,039 This happened so fast, 319 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:25,599 within six hours. 320 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:27,879 Had virtually no warning. 321 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:30,519 In fact, the warning I got was after the event. 322 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:33,399 The Logan river burst its banks, 323 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:38,479 and the area suffered from particularly extensive floods. 324 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:40,319 A lot of people have lost houses. 325 00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:42,359 In this part of the Logan River, 326 00:18:42,360 --> 00:18:44,759 there's people who have yet to discover 327 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:46,279 that they've lost their houses 328 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:48,439 because they stayed with family and friends. 329 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:51,599 They'll come back today and find that their house is underwater. 330 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:55,559 Homes were flooded, soaking belongings beyond repair. 331 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:59,879 In addition to homes and buildings being damaged, 332 00:18:59,880 --> 00:19:02,199 farmland was also affected, 333 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:03,840 with many crops destroyed. 334 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:09,879 All told, Tropical Cyclone Debbie caused 335 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:15,719 insured losses of 1.7 billion Australian dollars. 336 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:19,519 The task of rebuilding was a daunting prospect, 337 00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:23,439 set to impact people's lives for years to come. 338 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:25,519 As well as a physical toll, 339 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:28,439 such disasters can have a negative impact 340 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:31,239 on people's mental health. 341 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:34,199 Populations can bounce back and recover 342 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,999 from individual incidents. 343 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:42,079 However, Australia remains at risk of future cyclones. 344 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:44,959 Any rebuilding efforts need to consider 345 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:49,280 that they will be enveloped by the next inevitable cyclone. 346 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:03,239 Cyclones can't be avoided. 347 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,079 But the more we know about them, 348 00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:08,159 the more it becomes possible to detect patterns 349 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:11,039 and learn to manage the risk. 350 00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:13,599 If we are able to predict cyclones 351 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:15,759 and provide early warnings, 352 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:17,999 this information has the potential 353 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:22,999 to save thousands of lives each year worldwide. 354 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,119 Tropical cyclones by their nature 355 00:20:25,120 --> 00:20:26,999 are difficult to predict. 356 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:31,239 They can change direction and dissipate at any time. 357 00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:35,319 This makes long-term predictions difficult to make. 358 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:37,359 When it comes to weather warnings, 359 00:20:37,360 --> 00:20:42,079 it is also important to avoid false positives. 360 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:45,959 Mobilizing rescue crews and evacuating populations 361 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,359 is costly and should only be done 362 00:20:48,360 --> 00:20:50,959 when strictly necessary. 363 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:54,279 In some circumstances, the storm may abate 364 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,999 and it may become safer for populations to ride it out 365 00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:00,719 rather than evacuate. 366 00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:03,639 Fortunately, cyclones move quite slowly, 367 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:08,239 typically 16 to 32 kilometers per hour. 368 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:10,919 This allows some time for evacuation 369 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:14,280 and fortification of buildings against the storm. 370 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:18,719 Satellite imaging is key 371 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,079 in the early detection of a cyclone 372 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:24,999 because they normally form away from land. 373 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,639 Radar and computer modeling technologies 374 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:31,159 are being continuously developed. 375 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,279 Further research has involved flying planes 376 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:37,639 directly into cyclones to gather dimensional data 377 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,360 of the forces involved in the storm. 378 00:21:42,360 --> 00:21:46,319 At ground level, so-called storm chasers 379 00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:49,359 use customized vehicles built to collect data 380 00:21:49,360 --> 00:21:52,559 as they follow the path of the storm. 381 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,239 International cooperation is key, 382 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,279 and countries work together to track cyclones 383 00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:00,679 and share information. 384 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:04,399 These activities are coordinated at a global level 385 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:07,439 by the World Weather Watch program. 386 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,519 The point of gathering this data 387 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,199 is to shrink the cone of uncertainty 388 00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,959 and ensure that predictions are accurate enough 389 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,279 to allow people to make the right decision 390 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:21,199 whether to evacuate or shelter during the next storm. 391 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,839 Cyclone Debbie was highly damaging 392 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:27,759 to the settlements on the Whitsunday Islands. 393 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:35,479 Coastal mangroves. 394 00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:38,279 A tangle of trees adapted to survive 395 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,319 in the saltwater deltas. 396 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:44,559 A twisted knot of roots intertwined 397 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:48,599 forms an almost impenetrable barrier. 398 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,079 Mangroves' complex root systems 399 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:55,159 are evolved to withstand the action of the waves. 400 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,999 They form a natural defensive barrier, 401 00:22:58,000 --> 00:22:59,479 protecting the landscape 402 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,879 from the extremes of cyclone activity. 403 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,039 In many parts of the world, 404 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:10,039 humans have cleared large areas of mangrove forest. 405 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,199 Previously known as Burma, 406 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,919 Myanmar is a country in South Asia 407 00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:28,199 bordered by Bangladesh, India, China, Laos and Thailand. 408 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,279 In the last decade, Myanmar has lost 409 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:34,399 most of its mangrove forests along the coast 410 00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:38,359 to shrimp farms and rice paddies. 411 00:23:38,360 --> 00:23:42,479 The mangroves, not only do their root systems 412 00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:44,919 hold the soil together 413 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,159 underneath the water or near the water, 414 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:51,959 but the trees themselves also protect against wave action. 415 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:55,159 And all of this helps prevent erosion of land 416 00:23:55,160 --> 00:24:00,679 and it helps create new areas of land out from the coast. 417 00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:04,839 And so mangrove forests help form a barrier 418 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,559 that protects further inland 419 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:10,399 from heavy waves and storm surge. 420 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,599 The data backs this up. 421 00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:15,999 Studies have shown that mangroves 422 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:20,879 reduce the number of deaths in cyclone-hit areas. 423 00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:24,079 In Myanmar, the destruction of the mangroves 424 00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:27,279 has economic benefits in the short term. 425 00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:29,599 The farms established in their place 426 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,159 are relied upon by the local populations 427 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:34,799 as a key element of their diet. 428 00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,399 However, in the longer term, 429 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:40,599 the increased flood risk due to the loss of the mangroves 430 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,640 has the potential to impact the economy more. 431 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,039 Low-lying aquaculture ponds 432 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:51,999 and rice paddies present an inherent flood risk. 433 00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:53,959 The ground is already waterlogged, 434 00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:55,679 and any potential barriers 435 00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:59,079 to the influx of water are removed. 436 00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,119 In the event of storm surges, there is nothing to prevent 437 00:25:02,120 --> 00:25:07,280 oceanic saltwater flowing inland, poisoning the crops. 438 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:13,919 With its tropical location, 439 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:17,240 Myanmar has a high risk of cyclone activity. 440 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:20,959 However, with its defenses depleted 441 00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,439 in recent years, the risk of catastrophic floods 442 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,999 have continued to increase. 443 00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:29,200 It was just a matter of time. 444 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:34,360 In 2008, time ran out. 445 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:37,479 2008 was the year 446 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:39,839 of the most deadly natural disaster 447 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,719 ever recorded in Myanmar. 448 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,640 It was caused by a tropical cyclone. 449 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:49,119 A tropical system was detected 450 00:25:49,120 --> 00:25:50,879 in the Bay of Bengal 451 00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:54,480 by Indian meteorologists on April the 27th. 452 00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,159 By the following day, it had developed 453 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:03,759 into a Category 1 cyclone and was given the name Nargis. 454 00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:06,199 Nargis was a tropical cyclone 455 00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:11,079 that formed in the Bay of Bengal in late April, 2008. 456 00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:13,119 And the Bay of Bengal has 457 00:26:13,120 --> 00:26:15,799 among the highest sea surface temperatures 458 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:17,679 in the entire world, 459 00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:21,079 especially between spring, summer and fall 460 00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:22,479 in the Northern Hemisphere. 461 00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:25,399 By May the 2nd, 462 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:27,039 Nargis had developed 463 00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:29,799 into a deadly Category 4 cyclone, 464 00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,719 and it made landfall near the town of Wagon 465 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,599 in the Ayeyarwady Division. 466 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:37,279 In Myanmar in particular, 467 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,519 the Cyclone Nargis was an event that-- 468 00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:42,359 None of which on that scale has happened before. 469 00:26:42,360 --> 00:26:45,639 So the government was very much unprepared for that. 470 00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,039 And people on the ground in the delta, of course, 471 00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:49,559 were very vulnerable. 472 00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,279 Typically, when a storm would hit 473 00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:54,119 big, solid land of mountains, it would lose energy. 474 00:26:54,120 --> 00:26:56,039 But in this case, in the delta, 475 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,319 the land is already completely flooded. 476 00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,279 There's lots of warm water there. 477 00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,959 It's very, very flat, there is no shelter. 478 00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,799 And there's nothing to make the storm lose energy. 479 00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,399 So as Nargis hit the river delta in Myanmar, 480 00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:10,759 it didn't lose any energy at all. 481 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:12,959 The winds were incredibly intense 482 00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:16,639 and the storm surge drove the water far inland from the delta 483 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,159 because the land was already flooded full of water. 484 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:22,239 That was what was responsible for the loss of life. 485 00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:27,999 Nargis would go on to cause untold devastation, 486 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:34,319 destroying 450,000 homes and damaging a further 350,000. 487 00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:43,719 Approximately 600 hectares of farmland were destroyed 488 00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:47,280 and over 800,000 people were displaced. 489 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:10,359 Nargis could be considered a perfect storm of destruction. 490 00:28:10,360 --> 00:28:13,559 However, there were several human factors to consider 491 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:17,520 that greatly increased the toll caused by the cyclone. 492 00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:25,119 The country of Myanmar was not well prepared for cyclones. 493 00:28:25,120 --> 00:28:28,600 It had no early warning system for incoming storms. 494 00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:33,559 In the case of Cyclone Nargis, 495 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,039 it was only tipped off to the storm's presence 496 00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:39,239 by Indian meteorologists. 497 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:43,200 It had no storm shelters or evacuation plans. 498 00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,479 Much of its housing was particularly vulnerable, 499 00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:50,679 built mainly from poor materials 500 00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:52,599 in a haphazard fashion 501 00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,680 without controls or building regulations. 502 00:28:58,000 --> 00:28:59,359 Poor quality housing 503 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,239 is one of the main risk factors 504 00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:06,519 in the developing world when facing extreme weather events. 505 00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,439 Myanmar is one of the least developed countries 506 00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:11,159 in the world and in Southeast Asia. 507 00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:13,039 It's also one of the largest countries 508 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:15,399 in Southeast Asia actually, space-wise, 509 00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:21,079 and it has about 55 million inhabitants who suffered under 510 00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:24,839 authoritarianism, military rule, ethnic conflicts, civil war 511 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:26,959 ever since the independence of the country. 512 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,119 When the weather warnings did come, 513 00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:31,599 many people doubted their accuracy 514 00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:34,240 and didn't evacuate or prepare. 515 00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:41,319 Previous forecasts in Myanmar had been so inaccurate, 516 00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:43,480 people didn't believe these warnings... 517 00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:49,079 the cone of uncertainty regarding storm predictions 518 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,880 having a deadly effect in this case. 519 00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:57,199 Within a couple of days of landfall, 520 00:29:57,200 --> 00:30:02,519 some 260,000 people were evacuated to temporary camps 521 00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:05,480 throughout the Ayeyarwady River Delta. 522 00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:12,679 Heavy rains and a 3.6-meter-high storm surge 523 00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,559 destroyed up to 95 percent of the buildings 524 00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:18,319 in the cyclone's path. 525 00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:22,039 The floodwaters penetrated 48 kilometers inland 526 00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:23,680 from the coast... 527 00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:27,839 damaging not just homes, 528 00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:33,320 but farms, fisheries, industry, roads and infrastructure. 529 00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,879 The political situation at the time in Myanmar 530 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:58,839 greatly complicated the emergency response. 531 00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:03,239 Myanmar at the time was considered a pariah state 532 00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:06,599 while under the rule of an oppressive military junta 533 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,920 from 1962 to 2011. 534 00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:14,479 The military were in place by force 535 00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:17,479 rather than a democratic mandate. 536 00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:19,759 Its response to the cyclone 537 00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:23,200 greatly increased the human cost of the disaster. 538 00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:29,599 During the disaster, despite international condemnation 539 00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:31,799 by multiple world leaders, 540 00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:35,519 including U.S. President George W. Bush 541 00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:37,999 and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, 542 00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:41,679 Myanmar's rulers heavily resisted international aid 543 00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:43,000 for too long. 544 00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,879 We now estimate that 2 million people 545 00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,399 faced famine or disease as a result 546 00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:53,199 of the lack of cooperation of the Burmese authorities. 547 00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:54,839 This is completely unacceptable. 548 00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:58,039 There must be unfettered access to humanitarian agencies. 549 00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:00,759 We've already made available 5 million pounds. 550 00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:02,919 We've got a humanitarian team now in Rangoon 551 00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:04,239 to assess all options 552 00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:06,359 for getting help through to people in need. 553 00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:09,159 You do have people that are dying every day. 554 00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:12,399 And we don't have a sense at this point 555 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:15,359 that the response to date is adequate 556 00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:17,559 to keep more people from dying. 557 00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:22,279 It means, you know, probability of outbreaks, 558 00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:23,599 disease outbreaks. 559 00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:25,719 More people dying because of exposure, 560 00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:30,119 because of disease, because of malnutrition, 561 00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:31,400 because of hunger. 562 00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:35,239 When aid finally came, 563 00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,040 it was too late for many. 564 00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:41,319 An official death toll doesn't exist. 565 00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:45,799 Myanmar's military leaders didn't coordinate a count. 566 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:49,399 However, the confirmed death toll is known to be 567 00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:53,399 at least 146,000. 568 00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,919 At least 2.4 million people 569 00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:59,360 were greatly impacted by Cyclone Nargis. 570 00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,239 All told, it is estimated 571 00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,079 that Cyclone Nargis caused 572 00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:09,839 over 10 billion U.S. dollars' worth of damage, 573 00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:12,959 making it the costliest cyclone to have occurred 574 00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:15,920 in the North Indian Ocean basin. 575 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:28,959 Most of the discourse around cyclones 576 00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:31,119 is focused on the damage they do 577 00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:35,160 and the humanitarian challenges of dealing with the aftermath. 578 00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:47,519 Climate change also needs to be factored in 579 00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:50,119 when discussing the potential future outcomes 580 00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:53,400 of extreme weather systems like cyclones. 581 00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:56,399 Counterintuitively, 582 00:33:56,400 --> 00:34:00,719 studies show cyclones are happening less often. 583 00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:04,239 The number of tropical cyclones over the last 70 years 584 00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:06,399 have steadily reduced. 585 00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:10,159 Unfortunately, it's not all good news. 586 00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:11,799 The cyclones that do occur 587 00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,360 are more intense and more dangerous. 588 00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:20,839 As the Earth warms, 589 00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:23,519 the moisture content in the air increases, 590 00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:27,479 which in turn feeds more powerful storms. 591 00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:31,279 Computer models predict that for a two-degree Celsius rise 592 00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:33,079 in global temperatures, 593 00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:37,599 rainfall during a cyclone would increase 10 to 15 percent 594 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,559 and the storm's intensities would rise by 595 00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,679 as much as 10 percent. 596 00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:47,559 Rising sea levels increase the height of coastal storm surges 597 00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:51,359 and greater flooding is likely. 598 00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,479 The effects of climate change are already visible 599 00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:58,079 in the cyclones that are affecting many countries. 600 00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:00,919 The trend of more and more powerful storms 601 00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:03,519 can be seen in Cyclone Idai, 602 00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:08,400 which decimated parts of Southern Africa in 2019. 603 00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:15,879 The impact a storm has on the population 604 00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:18,279 depends not just upon the deadly ferocity 605 00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:20,159 of the storm itself 606 00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:23,800 but how well equipped a population is to deal with it. 607 00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:28,079 In developing countries, 608 00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:30,359 buildings are typically less robust 609 00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:33,119 and less able to withstand the forces 610 00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:36,880 of 160-plus kilometer-per-hour winds. 611 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:42,239 Emergency response services are underfunded, 612 00:35:42,240 --> 00:35:45,039 and their ability to help is exacerbated 613 00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:47,839 by poor transport infrastructure. 614 00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:51,559 Food and medical supplies are often overstretched 615 00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:54,240 by the sheer numbers of people involved. 616 00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,319 This magnifies the human impact, 617 00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,799 resulting in tens of thousands of casualties, 618 00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:03,759 compared to the hundreds in the West 619 00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:06,839 for a similar-size cyclone. 620 00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:29,679 Cyclone Idai hit Southeastern Africa in March, 2019, 621 00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:31,199 and went on to become 622 00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:34,480 one of the hemisphere's most devastating storms. 623 00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:41,799 Mozambique typically only gets 624 00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:45,240 one significant storm every 10 years. 625 00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:49,199 Because of this intermittent risk, 626 00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:52,560 preparation for cyclones isn't prioritized. 627 00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:56,759 It's unlikely, if an area 628 00:36:56,760 --> 00:37:00,319 is very infrequently attacked by tropical cyclones, 629 00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:02,639 that they will have the infrastructure in place 630 00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:05,639 to move people, to have safe places 631 00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:07,999 where they can evacuate people to. 632 00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:09,639 So a storm that hits in an area 633 00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:12,719 which is, shall we say, unprepared, 634 00:37:12,720 --> 00:37:15,999 of course, like any event, is going to be more badly affected. 635 00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:19,919 Between the 9th and the 12th of March, 2019, 636 00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:24,399 a tropical storm strengthened into Tropical Cyclone Idai. 637 00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:29,279 At its peak, sustained wind speeds 638 00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:33,919 were around 177 kilometers per hour. 639 00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:37,800 Idai's intensity receded over the next day or so. 640 00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:42,519 But that trend didn't continue, 641 00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:46,279 and Cyclone Idai's wind speed ramped up again. 642 00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:49,719 By March the 14th, the sustained wind speeds 643 00:37:49,720 --> 00:37:54,359 peaked at 193 kilometers per hour. 644 00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:56,839 Cyclone Idai had a looping path 645 00:37:56,840 --> 00:38:00,320 that made it unpredictable and difficult to track. 646 00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:06,239 It actually made landfall twice in Mozambique. 647 00:38:06,240 --> 00:38:08,039 On the 15th of March, 648 00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:12,639 Idai made landfall in the Mozambican city of Beira. 649 00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:16,520 It was not prepared for such a catastrophic storm. 650 00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:20,999 The city of Beira was torn up 651 00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:23,920 as the storm ripped through the buildings. 652 00:38:25,720 --> 00:38:29,520 Many people were injured by the airborne debris. 653 00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:35,039 Beira has about 500,000 people, 654 00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:39,239 some of whom live right near the river in low-lying areas. 655 00:38:39,240 --> 00:38:44,759 So because the system was able to push a surge of seawater 656 00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:48,759 up the river in a populated region, 657 00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:52,119 it made this system quite deadly at landfall. 658 00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:55,919 And furthermore, it spent more days after that 659 00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:59,359 with heavy rainfall, causing further river flooding 660 00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:02,039 and other kinds of inland flooding. 661 00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:05,119 Up to 90 percent of the buildings in Beira 662 00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:07,279 were totally destroyed. 663 00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:11,679 From Beira, Cyclone Idai continued inland, 664 00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:14,719 leaving a trail of destruction in its wake 665 00:39:14,720 --> 00:39:19,239 and reaching Zimbabwe on March the 16th. 666 00:39:19,240 --> 00:39:23,959 Eventually, Idai killed at least 1300 people 667 00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:28,399 and impacted over 3 million people across Madagascar, 668 00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:33,159 Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, 669 00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:35,839 making it the second deadliest cyclone 670 00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:38,359 to hit the Southern Hemisphere. 671 00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:40,799 Idai brought torrential rainfall, 672 00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:44,559 causing catastrophic flooding in many areas, 673 00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:48,519 displacing hundreds of thousands of people. 674 00:40:51,520 --> 00:40:54,479 The floods helped spread infectious diseases, 675 00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:57,040 including cholera and malaria. 676 00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:32,999 Over 100,000 homes were destroyed 677 00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:36,280 and at least 1 million acres of crops were ruined... 678 00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:40,559 exacerbating food shortages 679 00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:43,640 and placing the country at risk of famine. 680 00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:47,239 Very intense rain 681 00:41:47,240 --> 00:41:49,079 has hit the whole province, 682 00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:51,159 which is swelling the river basins 683 00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:53,799 and is putting additional populations 684 00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:55,279 along those rivers at risk, 685 00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:57,719 including the population 686 00:41:57,720 --> 00:42:00,039 in certain cities such as Pemba. 687 00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:05,639 We estimate that probably over 100,000 more people 688 00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:08,799 are at risk of the flood. 689 00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:14,759 The impact of storms such as Idai can last a long time. 690 00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:17,799 People can suffer from disease and malnutrition 691 00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:20,640 for many months after the storm has passed. 692 00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:25,719 In some areas, 693 00:42:25,720 --> 00:42:29,359 girls are caught between impossible choices for survival 694 00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:32,359 as severe food shortages bite. 695 00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:35,959 A rise of prostitution, sex for food, 696 00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:38,679 forced and arranged marriages were noted 697 00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:41,679 in the aftermath of the cyclone. 698 00:42:41,680 --> 00:42:47,759 So the main impact of Storm Idai in Mozambique was the flooding. 699 00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:50,279 The winds, of course, were very severe, 700 00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:53,639 but the winds were relatively short-lived. 701 00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:56,639 Idai was not a particularly severe windstorm 702 00:42:56,640 --> 00:42:58,559 by any standard, 703 00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:01,359 but it did produce vast amounts of rain, 704 00:43:01,360 --> 00:43:03,239 a lot of storm surge, 705 00:43:03,240 --> 00:43:05,359 and it deposited a large amount of water 706 00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:09,879 on land that was already quite low-lying and wet. 707 00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:12,519 As the floodwaters started to recede 708 00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:16,399 and the slow, painful process of rebuilding began, 709 00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:18,520 the unthinkable happened. 710 00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:22,959 Less than six weeks after Cyclone Idai 711 00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:24,759 tore through the country, 712 00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:28,439 Cyclone Kenneth made landfall in Mozambique 713 00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:30,400 on the 24th of April... 714 00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:34,799 the second major storm to hit 715 00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:36,840 in less than a two-month period. 716 00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:45,839 Kenneth made landfall just north of Pemba in Mozambique. 717 00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:47,839 Idai was bad. 718 00:43:47,840 --> 00:43:49,839 Kenneth was worse. 719 00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:02,919 When Kenneth came along not very long after Idai, 720 00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:05,919 it was falling-- It was causing rain to fall 721 00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:07,879 on an area that was already flooded. 722 00:44:07,880 --> 00:44:09,919 People's homes were already devastated. 723 00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:12,159 People were already living outside 724 00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:14,079 because of the previous storm. 725 00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:16,119 So that when the second storm came along, 726 00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:17,719 they were totally exposed. 727 00:44:17,720 --> 00:44:23,119 And the impact, of course, was amplified many times. 728 00:44:23,120 --> 00:44:27,039 Kenneth was to become the most intense tropical cyclone 729 00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:29,799 in Mozambique's recorded history, 730 00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:34,880 with sustained winds of 225 kilometers per hour. 731 00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:40,799 Scientists believe climate change may have had a hand 732 00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:44,039 in triggering two storms so close together. 733 00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:56,719 In the case of Idai when it hit Mozambique, 734 00:44:56,720 --> 00:44:59,359 of course the flooding and the winds 735 00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:01,599 caused a lot of people to be moved away from their homes. 736 00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:04,679 A lot of people lost their homes and then were displaced. 737 00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:07,439 They were battered by the first storm. 738 00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:09,639 There was a lot of sickness, a lot of injury, 739 00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:11,759 a lot of people didn't have water and food. 740 00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:13,279 So under those conditions, 741 00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:16,119 while people are camping essentially in the open air 742 00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:17,639 in a very weakened state, 743 00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:20,199 the arrival of the second storm, Kenneth, 744 00:45:20,200 --> 00:45:23,839 a very short period afterwards was utterly devastating. 745 00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:27,519 The two storms greatly impacted agriculture 746 00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:32,399 in an area with 780,000 hectares of crops, 747 00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:35,159 plunging some 200,000 children 748 00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:38,720 into crisis levels of food insecurity. 749 00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:44,399 Mozambique was hit by two cyclones 750 00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:48,039 in March and April of 2019, 751 00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:50,079 and that additional flooding 752 00:45:50,080 --> 00:45:54,479 made more regions difficult to get to. 753 00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:56,479 Roads were washed out. 754 00:45:56,480 --> 00:46:00,279 This flooding was lasting for weeks on end. 755 00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,479 And for those reasons, it was difficult 756 00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:04,919 for international aid workers to reach 757 00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:07,279 some of the villages and cities and towns 758 00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:09,239 that had been affected. 759 00:46:09,240 --> 00:46:12,479 And in addition, these regions are fairly poor, 760 00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:15,319 and they are exposed to diseases 761 00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:18,999 like cholera and malaria on a regular basis. 762 00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:22,959 But these flooding conditions made those worse. 763 00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:28,479 So, for instance, Mozambique had a cholera outbreak after Idai, 764 00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:31,799 and Kenneth would have made that even worse. 765 00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:36,639 Cyclones Idai and Kenneth happening so close together 766 00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:39,160 was a once-in-a-generation disaster. 767 00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:46,479 Populations still reeling from Idai 768 00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:49,120 were in no position to deal with Kenneth. 769 00:46:51,480 --> 00:46:55,079 An estimated 2.5 million people, 770 00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:58,159 almost 10 percent of the country's population, 771 00:46:58,160 --> 00:47:00,760 needed life-saving assistance. 772 00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:19,479 Cyclones represent nature at its most primal, 773 00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:23,199 a force we can't control or easily predict, 774 00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:26,119 with winds and waves that are so powerful 775 00:47:26,120 --> 00:47:28,959 that our defenses seem futile. 776 00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:30,679 They can strike in many places 777 00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:32,359 and often hit countries 778 00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:34,719 not equipped to deal with them. 779 00:47:34,720 --> 00:47:38,239 The initial landfall is frightening and chaotic, 780 00:47:38,240 --> 00:47:42,079 but the really deadly disaster occurs in the aftermath 781 00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:45,879 with the spread of disease and famine. 782 00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:49,159 A country's infrastructure can be torn up, 783 00:47:49,160 --> 00:47:51,479 hampering rescue efforts. 784 00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:53,159 Even if people can escape 785 00:47:53,160 --> 00:47:55,759 the initial danger of the storm, 786 00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:57,719 where do they go? 787 00:47:57,720 --> 00:48:01,519 Cyclones oust hundreds of thousands of people each year. 788 00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:05,119 Where are these displaced populations housed? 789 00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:07,999 The various dangers to these people remain 790 00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:10,719 long after the storm has abated. 791 00:48:10,720 --> 00:48:13,959 Some of the world's worst humanitarian disasters 792 00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:16,479 have been triggered by cyclones, 793 00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:19,439 with individual storms that negatively impact 794 00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:23,239 millions of people while costing billions of dollars. 795 00:48:23,240 --> 00:48:27,079 The relationship between climate change and cyclones 796 00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:29,119 is still being tested, 797 00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:32,959 but the trend is for more dramatic storms. 798 00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:37,359 Unity among organizations is the lifeline to survival 799 00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:40,359 in any disaster, let alone when faced 800 00:48:40,360 --> 00:48:43,479 with the eye of Mother Nature's fury, 801 00:48:43,480 --> 00:48:46,679 the catastrophic impact of cyclones.